I’m sure everyone is well aware of Iceberg’s research report on Noble. Honestly, I haven’t really read much into it. The only thing I’m aware of is the $600m on Yancoal and target price of $0.10
Honestly, I feel that $0.10 is too exaggerated. Using a TA perspective, here’s why. It’s a fact that Noble has been trending down since Sept 2014. To trade with the trend would mean to never have been long in the first place. I agree that the rally starting from Feb 2015 gave somewhat of an indication that trend may have been broken. However an uptrend can only be confirmed when price makes a “higher high, and a higher low“. This simply tells you that there’s no uptrend although it indicated a possibility with just a higher high.
Since what has happened has happened, let’s look forward.
Where is the market heading now?
Using simple TA would indicate to us that the next proven trendline support would be around 12-16% away from current price. Don’t be surprised, because the charts are telling the whole story. The range from 0.78-0.815 should show some signs of support based on (1) estimated distance from trendline support and (2) support back in Aug 2013.
Do expect some pull-back due to short-covering as well.
All the best in your trading! We’ll revisit Noble when I’m back from Taiwan! Will be there for another month for ATEC!