Noble – Were you caught by surprise? What now?

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I’m sure everyone is well aware of Iceberg’s research report on Noble. Honestly, I haven’t really read much into it. The only thing I’m aware of is the $600m on Yancoal and target price of $0.10

Honestly, I feel that $0.10 is too exaggerated. Using a TA perspective, here’s why. It’s a fact that Noble has been trending down since Sept 2014. To trade with the trend would mean to never have been long in the first place. I agree that the rally starting from Feb 2015 gave somewhat of an indication that trend may have been broken. However an uptrend can only be confirmed when price makes a “higher high, and a higher low“. This simply tells you that there’s no uptrend although it indicated a possibility with just a higher high.

Since what has happened has happened, let’s look forward.

Where is the market heading now?

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Using simple TA would indicate to us that the next proven trendline support would be around 12-16% away from current price. Don’t be surprised, because the charts are telling the whole story. The range from 0.78-0.815 should show some signs of support based on (1) estimated distance from trendline support and (2) support back in Aug 2013.

Do expect some pull-back due to short-covering as well.

All the best in your trading! We’ll revisit Noble when I’m back from Taiwan! Will be there for another month for ATEC!

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2 thoughts on “Noble – Were you caught by surprise? What now?

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